Friday February 14, 2020 09:31

Where Does New Hampshire Leave Us?

The New Hampshire primary boosted Klobuchar, exposed Biden as a zombie and drew the curtains on Andrew Yang and Deval Patrick. That's something, and at least the Hampshiremen/women counted votes in a businesslike manner.

With essentially all the votes in, Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are bunched at the top within 6 percentage points of one another. Warren and Biden have less than half the votes of the leaders and are within 1 percentage point of each other. Steyer and Gabbard have less than half the votes of Warren/Biden and are within half a percentage point of each other.

 

The results are as follows:

Candidate

Votes

% of Vote

Delegates

Sanders

76,286

25.8

9

Buttigieg

72,443

24.5

9

Klobuchar

58,818

19.9

6

       

Warren

27,379

9.2

0

Biden

24,915

8.4

0

       

Steyer

10,589

3.6

0

Gabbard

9,708

3.3

0

As of today, the field is still more crowded than it should be. Of course a fellow should be able to spend his money how he likes and perhaps Steyer simply has nothing better to do, but he's wasting the time of the electorate. Or rather, his voters are wasting their time and votes. Unlike Steyer, Gabbard is running mostly on other people's money. Maybe she just wants to spend it all. Or she really is a Russian agent who's just following orders. Or she thinks the DNC hates her so much that having a pledged delegate is the only way she'll get through the door at Milwaukee.

Prices on PredictIt have settled as of Valentine's Day and, as forward indicators, I like them better than public polls if only because prices reflect changes in sentiment minute-by-minute whereas polls take a while to field and analyze. At the moment, the market diverges significantly from the polls.

The table shows the prices (as of 9 am February 14 and 10 pm February 10, just before the primary) and the latest national polling averages from RealClear. The polls reflect data that was collected before the primary. (If you follow the links, you'll see current prices and the latest polling average.)

Candidate

Price 2/14

Price 2/10

Polling Average

Sanders

42

45

23.6%

Bloomberg

33

31

14.2%

       

Biden

13

10

19.2%

Buttigieg

12

12

10.6%

       

Klobuchar

7

8

4.6%

Hillary

7

5

n/a

       

Warren

3

2

12.4%

Bettors see this as a two-person race with Sanders a length in front of Bloomberg. Several lengths behind, Buttigieg and Biden are running neck and neck just a length in front of Klobuchar and Hillary Clinton. Yep, you read that correctly. "Hillary to win the nomination" is at 7¢. And "Hillary to run in 2020" is at 12¢, which shocked me enough to read the fine print. "To run" simply means she must file a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an Exploratory Committee. The astronomical price still tests my faith in the rationality of bettors, but I suppose it makes sense simply as a statement about the strength of her desire for revenge, the depth of her delusion, and her assessment of her residual pull with superdelegates. That any delegates, super or otherwise, really would prefer Hillary to Amy (who is also at 7¢) boggles my mind.

Poor Liz is jogging off to the glue factory. I've tended to ignore everything below Hillary's prices and at this stage being priced at only a couple of pennies on the dollar does seem plausible.

Considering the bigger picture, "Trump to win the election" is up a penny to 56¢, "Democrats to control the House" is at 64¢ and "Democrats to win the Senate" is at 32¢. But it's early days. Remember that the 49ers were expected to win for most of the recent Super Bowl.

Huffery puffery is rampant and pundits are all across the board. A.B. Stoddard thinks the fresh, exciting and intelligent Buttigieg surely will win some time and it could be now. Conrad Black thinks the genuine, plucky, articulate Klobuchar has the best chance of uniting the Democratic party against Trump. The estimable Matt Taibbi thinks the Democratic establishment is paving the way for Bernie, contrary to intention. The boys and girls at Jacobin love Bernie and are using "Socialism Is Love" as a marketing slogan. Jacob Heilbrun thinks Biden is perfectly poised for a comeback. Frank Bruni can't identify a winner and thinks panic a reasonable response.

So, with all that data, what do we know? As a betting man, I wouldn't go against the current market consensus that puts the chance of either Bernie or Bloomberg being the nominee at about three out of four.

The general election will be wild and segment-by-segment turnout will determine the outcome. As entertainment, betting is better than streaming. And of course anyone who has money in the stock market is betting on politics too. Enjoy the rush!

To close, Andrew Yang deserves attention in a subsequent post. He stood out for talking about the implications automation will have for the lives of workers and about a universal basic income. He also stands out for his fatally well-mannered refusal to interrupt his way to air time in debates. I wish him well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read 147 times Last modified on Monday March 09, 2020 20:31
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